[中国新闻] 中国经济：与公牛赛跑

外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社黄瑞

5.35.249.64- \% Q8 L1 K8 B
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。
人在德国社区5 t5 L0 _2 R/ G0 `3 |
　　华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。5.35.249.64* x3 r8 x1 O7 K
人在德国社区6 Q! I+ q* X( n8 ^  r) _. O  I' r1 {5 V8 n
　　英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。
* Y! M- i; \  k2 O" g% o6 ^
　　在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。
人在德国社区! h+ b+ }* O9 v* ^& W
　　金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。5.35.249.641 H2 q' y& Y1 i: F4 g
　　华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。5.35.249.64, x3 a6 D3 F7 ], S& U

　　比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。
5.35.249.642 o$ H: S/ T! b
（责任编辑：杨海洋）! i& v. O& J$ t/ S; z

Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020  Source : Reuters& ~/ n; b, r, [, S

BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ; r- c! I( B& g6 c5 z1 T

A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. $ T$ d; I7 B) |

Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 5.35.249.64: d" L. A* [$ \$ I
/ O. Z0 N  _$ D, `
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. : H" P# v" {9 {  Y8 f
人在德国社区1 E2 l. z6 U* }4 Q9 x  x" M" @
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. / f- i2 q  ^; ^# u: {, h
) ]& q$ }* I9 H, a+ S! `& c; x
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 0 k! e) h, G% I3 D8 C$ [
+ f8 H) Y9 `$ Z- V0 m! x* T3 a
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ' N* t0 i2 _: y
5 m( `) H  Y2 e0 d
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 人在德国社区8 `, M/ ]6 W9 _- l2 M
8 U! h7 I6 z+ v9 z
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. & x! O3 n7 u2 g6 k. d+ ^
人在德国社区$ g% @7 F, r3 H& t
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform.
% D* o5 I7 E1 H, d* P: e. i
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 5.35.249.64+ K1 d9 s* I% ^
. M/ o! L8 ~5 u1 C! g- b( b& w- a
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. " r5 I1 U* a$ C$ H3 c5 y6 I; ]
3 J/ u* Y# `$ L2 ?  m& M# I
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period".

If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 1 J3 o" H+ g3 Z4 f! Y8 V

International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth.
9 ~  t3 O! h. {
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper.

Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures.

Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.