- ^: W. r e3 U5 G 【明报专讯】东京大学学者盖勒（Robert Geller）在《自然》杂志撰文，反驳日本扬言今次地震「不能预测」的说法，他直指，日本东北地区向来海啸频繁，其中1896年的三陆海啸卷起38米巨浪，导致逾2.2万人死亡；公元869年的仙台附近海啸，规模亦与今次席卷东北的海啸相若。若当局以此为鑑，东日本大地震某程度上是「可预测」的。 5 Q8 F: n8 h" ?6 b' J3 L6 B( e Q% n$ K
促扬弃「东海大地震」字眼4 b; b' }2 @% s5 z
; |: _2 y; f& u! Z; p% E8 x 他批评日本过去30多年都是按错漏百出的「地震空白区模型」（seismic gap model）作预测﹕研究员图将板块活动与地震数据结合，作出长线大地震预测，它的假设是，板块间边缘位置若长时间没出现大地震（空白），不久将来就会有巨震。但这假设早已经不起事实验证——从上万年的长时间观点来看，这套「空白」理论也许还有意思，但短期内根本看不出固定的大地震周期。9 y2 O( M, G: X- G! J
+ R) B2 Q* x I* \3 }8 ^- r9 K* F2 J! y, j
Robert J. Geller calls on Japan to stop using flawed methods for long-term forecasts and to scrap its system for trying to predict the 'Tokai earthquake'. ; E( P" ~) N7 m1 x, e2 X2 i( X6 b" i2 S+ M( M& ]9 ~- k
6 O/ f" v5 s0 ]/ R6 S W9 UFor the past 20 years or so, some seismologists in Japan have warned of the seismic and tsunami hazards to the safety of nuclear power plants, most notably Katsuhiko Ishibashi, now professor emeritus at Kobe University. Their warnings went unheeded. Yet in the immediate aftermath of the magnitude-9.1 earthquake that struck Tohoku on 11 March, pundits could be found on many Japanese TV stations saying that it was “unforeseeable”. ; l. l" C! p" n6 _0 h, A& i: T( s6 F. Z! W
6 j! u9 e- d# r! C' Y# p
! m9 n$ Y v+ x1 o, Q! ?
5 r) G5 U$ x7 r! I 4 ?; T6 b' ?0 c+ c8 sEmergency drills such as this mislead the public into believing that the Tokai district is due a magnitude-8 quake soon.
% H& q* Z* @8 n" c