$ l9 R- _- x% L* U% {% Z' \ ) H+ N7 [8 B: Q中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。3 u5 _. u7 s+ T; ~7 T
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 J; O+ j9 {% _, L6 z n4 g- l$ D" C
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 5 P' _+ T, o8 f, x+ {% R 7 z- v k1 f" s4 b: X5 x3 W+ p 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。3 N1 B3 u9 p5 I! i
# H& j* d) V3 }: `; u 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 3 o1 z9 N+ w9 A# d 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 * B* T7 _! d! |7 F( Q$ e- a V' K - ]: o L: t# \7 E) e- L0 ` 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。4 n- l9 D$ ?7 ~9 p; k4 S1 i
9 I. S" u, A/ [3 s. o$ i （责任编辑：杨海洋） ) n# w7 _$ o% o6 u5 |& V8 }5 p0 T2 W* w& c1 J; |
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 2 }/ t1 Q) p! g" b( W# h ' U+ V! k* f: Y( T2 V$ m1 fBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. . R$ v; h# h; O' V( X* Z $ _/ ^; G0 d* g$ e: l7 tA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. * K' H5 ]! U4 }8 o1 W3 ~5 t
+ w& F: K0 N. M: MLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. . |2 e' H6 i# ~1 w3 p, e* G
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. % F+ o! e2 f3 ~& e
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. , r% B0 W1 T' g; P* l
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 1 g' E# j4 g" i0 V* \
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. . R( Q5 Q) H3 s" ^
1 O( O/ D `5 Q"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 5 e C% r+ E- R6 @& S% I- x! i7 U4 ~( l$ E( Y$ U+ u0 F2 r. |
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 1 l7 M; k3 [5 A5 m% @! D- [7 R7 \! m( `7 }! x) O, E
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ; ?6 t/ J0 M$ e0 k5 o0 v ! d& @3 L& K ~! K* Y4 G7 i% eThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. * F, s' ~$ G) F, a
! f' V' d- g7 qUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. # W* b4 ^# I6 s* o" |5 r
' Z5 t8 c) y. b) Z: j EChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ( u: M- A% j1 W" r8 L3 } 9 P( J8 d9 Q6 l& l8 X, r( z# NIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 8 K- t6 g) h; T: X2 {& f, k8 r% }9 P7 S
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. , O0 ]; b7 i' m- X
: X% C8 `2 }( A- h) T"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 3 x( d4 b2 M& ?3 _
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 9 [" @: T0 m9 p: u1 L1 z9 C7 K0 I1 X ^7 l% g
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
