& C# t" i* h7 J. H# C; e 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。0 s' e3 i; O. S8 r
! V l1 }( S1 j Z7 c% X& f 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 $ Z" j6 D# F4 U: M" y 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。+ d3 E5 E. F1 f" X
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。6 m2 _ N1 {" {' D
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters1 N3 j$ ?8 F! J
$ x! u% R" m& a3 _9 E- {6 T) eBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 1 ~ g! s. {9 Z1 | e# o2 o/ i8 ?6 D& c- j% z& Y- v: B
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ( B7 X/ d- g, H0 B- V) S$ k( F
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. / M3 q4 A5 M1 C; N) w$ q3 O 8 N$ Y* Q( s3 I1 U0 yAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. . i+ O$ x4 ^+ L) K
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. & t/ N; n0 }) I D3 x$ U. s# i& E
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 1 Z9 Y( _7 Z* Z! i H: `
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. : n$ F3 T& t$ \' z& ]4 }4 f& X* u3 P- I; |
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. / n: E0 o4 x) x. I Z4 K' C) \: I
8 q5 L+ {! M% h OIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 2 L+ Z% M8 K( W+ {- \
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 2 ^- z" g: d9 A! R7 E( h 8 h' H' ^3 l& V8 F7 p, mThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. $ N, _5 }: {* q0 T; {
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. * b0 a/ D* y8 I( }7 W$ l
# ^& n6 S! L, QChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 2 p# E! P& J" h5 v% s/ d3 Y! K
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. $ y) O3 o V/ n/ n
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. F! F& M: e; c, a2 X / ]1 P4 Z/ S, `2 J0 h+ D1 a* d"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. # k) C/ s6 N# f2 N# T7 r3 u8 ? , n4 R+ w* Q W6 Q2 Q: vGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 9 A8 w, j5 l; F C5 H- X2 e* E
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
