外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 ; P+ Z# ` Q# V! m! s1 D2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞$ C6 S. O# X# p6 D
! G: ?1 U5 ?. {+ @. S5 l5 \1 Q 3 t2 `" _3 V; p9 m% N中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。3 K J7 M# M. m' G4 a0 C. v7 w$ a
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 6 L: u @+ E7 x- B ; ^$ U- @9 s3 W7 p# t9 |/ i! n 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 6 I. c9 _3 @, r, g" g" ]3 z9 j' H) x" j( T: ]! C; S
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。4 z% X3 w+ ^! K# Y- q( T1 `& r- K
2 ^( J1 G. L( Z0 z: ?( _ 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。/ \% a$ y# h% g6 g. \# D
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 - K a. j8 N7 M F - n5 X, X" V: {: C3 r, w* P 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。* r0 F* ~4 v* i5 l- _, n
) l4 c" [6 ` L/ p+ b（责任编辑：杨海洋） , U, I" i( z4 @' a' G: a K- [ \( \ I2 Z' N$ uRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters ' U8 r/ m2 q$ G0 ?5 l' J8 O + R: q6 [0 z7 v9 d% fBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 8 |0 h5 c) B. l$ X7 j8 K
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. . X, h7 U4 s2 E( U1 U
9 e3 n7 j) N" c; W2 }Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ; s' U+ I6 V' b& g+ Z7 C# \ 0 s A- y6 t5 z2 [- m% s+ PAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. - `2 A: m) `5 c
9 w4 }; T4 ?! ?2 H& fRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 0 M4 o+ ?8 I2 P/ J/ o
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 1 R5 |# ?- n% G' i- K* p$ s T9 w9 C1 Q4 a' X; L5 s1 x
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 2 k+ b3 t8 x Y8 C1 q; h+ g$ v 3 {- D: [2 n& p* m* ]0 U+ [8 i"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. + ?% x2 S& c( }; D2 K8 O3 n
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. X) A- v$ V) N& T+ Z
$ C/ H% y: ~' E2 j# m" z$ VGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. " v# a. T- y8 w7 F9 G! l* T
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ! p8 K3 I/ j$ j; z% }; ?0 R% B4 N$ w# |6 N: [! v" N7 F
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 6 |3 O" y+ y! M3 p% `2 ~# N$ } - V! r. Q1 [5 D8 g. QChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". $ L6 L9 V/ _8 r' p! Z) Q, m! }) Y8 A
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ) [6 Y$ M* _& S& x0 b/ G4 o7 H8 {) `+ X0 p, j, _1 i
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 4 N9 a7 ?8 m* @/ [0 C
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. : Y* D0 m5 {( j% ?( j3 g) V- H + z- O2 o: `- a: qGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ! M3 j2 t: y; D& S3 i: D/ ]9 _3 y8 D! y; V8 I' u; a1 b
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
