7 w4 [# G( Y$ l) W 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。* m1 B, ]# G4 A5 ^, ^! S
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 . B) ?% M4 a. o* J0 ^8 a7 w X, r3 F
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。2 E _* f; D0 @ _
- W& G7 N" S U8 s6 ^" R7 J 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 ( r# o0 X2 g& }% o6 o: c 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。* z c9 h/ }: p1 W: b
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 0 \2 s$ t i/ h# R9 y! B4 m) L: ?: k% p2 x （责任编辑：杨海洋）" F: W" u$ c& U0 r+ u
7 ~: c8 \3 ?% i/ H- r# M- YRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters: M0 y6 K: J5 u% @/ W( j
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 8 H8 g) B R! {4 u) k( m$ x' h- B. z
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. " x5 a6 Q) E7 A5 i/ A
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. + z3 S6 S+ Z9 x1 U$ J, ~" z8 B
* U7 J4 j; }: k& hAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. % z/ {1 a5 R+ }# m" J' _/ A# _ G1 y: ?+ z
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. & R5 i+ Q" h' j3 q N3 o4 J } % f) @! ?5 N& N& T- r7 WFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. _5 W/ }7 ?8 Q
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 7 t. ^( f4 B$ n! o
! K0 o6 ]$ n3 B' `# ]- [; j"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. , M" v3 B" `- p" w6 X* O 4 z, `+ e6 {: q! g P1 @# @+ rIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 2 z# p8 g$ G7 C# D2 Z& P, ^& s
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. / ]' f$ E a, p ' Q: @' W+ N% V4 |That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 8 |. ~+ \9 G+ p5 R* m/ `! i- A" z% G3 I
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 3 Y) v: s! P& F6 s; O8 ]
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 0 F& J) l8 a6 d
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ) }8 x- t+ G R6 A) j& z
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. + @8 a, O1 X) F$ c6 Y' v% G$ n( |( M8 y, M K$ n. R
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. # ~- ? Y; b. Y. h S* G- |( X) Q + h- U: y: B( j& HGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 9 z3 K, c& I2 k2 g- ^- @/ y% j* X4 Y4 a! _; V2 n- N( C" g
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
