外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 9 g1 y. `8 @& r# W, d$ K1 L2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 2 t F% U9 n% ^: _3 m5 A1 b : c* J: X2 m- N( y# W" J & b6 P$ i' K- S6 D0 I4 `
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 5 \ `# \8 r. F N; y- ~( b7 r$ y* b. J' X' M
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。- z! ?4 D( Y, l, h: S# a* W5 A* e% w
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 6 N' o) i! D" d% h! U& s# a, P! ^1 w4 \
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。( f' m. _( x/ S# F# t
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 ; e6 Q& q: B4 F$ D 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。: A# [8 h" o0 \: M, C" a6 I! t- V, D
. ]- q0 f* w9 E0 z$ [ 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。6 N" e# R6 _+ ^! U; _2 c' B$ O
+ L m8 t# z0 S: m( g8 N# T（责任编辑：杨海洋） " }; F+ h8 m4 u# d) U0 ~; I2 k5 f ( x( F8 u4 v; ~, \0 @3 C2 u# J& MRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters ; }, T. P( U: f0 u 2 I4 i# `5 W# h1 O! RBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. % i4 S0 F$ E0 s
# Y7 K. d* D7 C, K+ A+ k' ?3 UA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. ( G+ T+ ^" J% K) l
9 b2 O) f# T9 D$ T7 E! F: @Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 8 T2 R5 B8 k$ @! q. s* o' g9 g8 | , t; e/ k$ I/ r, q& WAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. C* ]! o% F7 p. `; O
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. . x2 b. Z: }: w3 N t
|3 o+ k/ y$ m0 I; Z% o! Y+ q% a' qFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. $ l* [2 \: r% |; B& n- u9 _! c, M: I2 J4 e5 g
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 4 V) N1 D" b2 p# I
4 K- Y3 `. O# i" X4 a) I/ k"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. / p+ ^- t. E/ d0 T) S. v% `2 d Y ?* C/ A0 k2 t0 F
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. " I* } Z1 m# w : d2 G" }" ~/ U! L7 J QGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ( A8 Y- y6 O& m0 U8 }8 m% D$ \
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ) U1 i5 ]1 p! T# v# w; b, z: C $ v: ?- [8 N S1 `: y3 E" r8 u9 \Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. - ]' K1 o1 K1 O$ b1 L, M# ?% t$ W1 q* U6 R$ f s
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ! R) r! G. o/ b3 x+ I) l6 g
8 p% r3 D, P. c# t- [5 r0 S( U$ ]If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. : U8 M' ]1 A2 N' F; n# K2 ]4 F) E
6 j& o- q2 c% ^" M3 a7 [: wInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ( L0 ?: J2 i% N# _7 A $ p4 e8 s) G) r8 j"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ! }( h+ r9 U; M2 t- _ w( X0 V- p5 I5 r& x; [
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. # ~3 I" e: X4 ]# M- |/ ~+ z1 _/ {% k, m8 \4 o4 k) S* ]8 D
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
