外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年0 a/ P( ?/ f( k9 w
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞* k* Q8 q2 e$ O0 H
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 $ H6 T; J- ]: \7 q9 N& f5 i. _% f1 S! P
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 7 c" a2 h. j& q 5 W ?! X7 E- x% Z 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 ( t% c# ~& W$ [4 N; B/ c7 S& m$ O8 }5 B C3 g$ u4 D
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 6 f% e& F- X0 c7 L& K + l& _9 f: T% I; v$ O 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 # f7 _6 Z" v* ^: Q& w- w! @ 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。3 Z% Q6 E( v9 h) o
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比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。7 H& g# |) k0 }2 k
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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters( y/ |( l6 D+ @( n' }$ S0 K
0 Y/ |& r$ {. E8 I1 |4 V' NBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. " ? C! |; m3 |# ~+ x
& ]0 q8 B7 F/ D! k; zA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 1 V/ M* v) i8 x$ ?* c2 Q& }' X5 V
9 z- `1 b) ?: B' w j4 ]# hLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ) y$ u% l* J" p8 r' P) T8 a8 S/ c5 X/ A: g. u; k: }% C/ B
After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 6 l$ n0 N# ~& z# I1 M
9 C( W+ v$ W% K' _ d( u' f5 nRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 2 B: p+ b+ T8 a$ w. i& B4 L
' L1 Y+ a- M4 OFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. # Z8 D2 d) t6 d
[* Z- l- Q |( qThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. % R1 n, z, B* U# }. S$ ~) T6 L) L 3 ^3 e' K3 i/ u* X"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 8 \. G" }4 K# Q3 B$ L
3 I# g" d5 M( M% \8 lIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. & Q3 J* M" p0 {4 s2 n$ b " {- G8 L1 H& q- G; J1 S0 KGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ! N' s- C) S- ^0 @, P
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. + @, s/ O/ D" b! @& h' ?% c8 c
# l+ k! @0 u' R1 Y- B+ AUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 2 h0 }# g v1 R& L. p, m
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 9 A* V9 {5 `& Q- b7 u q1 M3 T, }2 i; P k7 R' F6 d
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 8 m& C, D, d$ f( s4 v ; v9 O2 V+ K2 o. I' AInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ( D$ J! C8 G4 q% C3 k! R8 E E3 t5 _3 L' u
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. / i3 u) g4 F2 v
3 S, J5 w; e3 @+ vGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 9 a9 w4 B1 i, L: x5 h6 m % @- X. `$ O" I! ^+ k: `) vThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
