外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 9 p& g4 Z. N, |0 L* g% \2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 $ U# j y/ U, G6 L4 w" y ' L2 o" |: r: M! J$ M: V ) S/ W; N2 }) x中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 " R0 h6 }7 u: d7 H2 {( {) i4 o. P8 ~ W ?: Z
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。3 w( ?5 W' P2 g5 q: L4 \ }
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 3 k& c, V3 b' x3 j( T/ U! D$ x* n: ?; J4 T3 H% ~! r) B
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 * i' w/ f: y* u! U# T" o$ F1 X- Q! n. R + d0 c( f4 J) T7 w* z8 q) m 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。! l& Y% {. @: z. a
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。6 u( b8 s) C! p* f
9 `* z+ c. K# j" K* R# { 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。) ]- [/ h9 }# V- K1 S" f4 N4 B
5 Z8 W8 v$ ^) Y, j9 ?& S4 |（责任编辑：杨海洋） ' F+ s$ h1 H, I8 ~9 D$ D0 T. l& N( R6 L
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 8 h6 e& L- g8 a/ y . p/ f, I H8 w* t6 A) q; w9 ]7 XBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 3 W1 {3 [ M4 k0 q+ `& c 1 P; C; S1 |; l- j4 D9 {% \A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. , f9 y+ N; B" l3 o8 d. B% e8 F ' {8 b/ |- E! S# |- w% Q, `Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ' V/ O- ~! _2 a8 q9 H' s. s
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. % S- a' X. B R Y
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 2 a3 V/ M3 j+ W9 E: x& c* ?; C# H7 t( H' o: R7 L" M2 U
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 7 L4 I6 e. y, ~& \( T- U; X1 H- X: Q, T2 l9 K& l8 F& j9 f4 G. g' f
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 5 S6 G$ _ _8 [2 r3 ]9 }) M' x9 V/ A# _) u3 Q3 Z4 j2 S
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. i; @7 K& m7 J2 u5 T
: ~% f+ O) _3 yIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. $ d- e" c1 h( _8 O- a7 d) z. I) ]1 S% g
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ! S7 _$ {( ~9 u
# o% h7 F; J% A( N, K( a: \That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. ; P! }" a2 b8 U+ \
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 0 j0 F( N/ @; D T9 t% B
1 x* f( Y, ^7 U; K0 U, R, ~# bChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 9 l. M' C+ J& z9 V
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ! M4 K% K/ C- {, ^8 |5 I
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ' X/ g% l/ h$ o- z; n* A `
2 T) O* s7 {# [. U8 C& o"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. & P* F. r0 z) U1 I7 e* S( N7 ~9 Q- m/ o& V) L
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. " u: C. [* u8 G
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
