3 c9 V6 B" F$ } 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 & w7 n" k; Y0 E' b* O6 N& d- _6 j" U$ x! ^' x （责任编辑：杨海洋） ! a: S1 h" Q8 q5 R4 y. _" W* O+ S X7 u6 R- v
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters; ^) K: b- B8 P0 o; b+ I1 ?, y
" h/ K& _' W. Q) E, iBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. - B- W* r! {$ o6 B$ M0 w$ ?5 q
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. " z5 g; H5 q6 W' h( n9 ?6 _. I/ {3 b- O# T
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ! }: J3 q* {! }, u/ ~$ T) C
# G8 U$ f( i# W# fAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ( E1 Y' F4 X" A, C4 M8 n* B! F5 y5 t d9 N
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. $ G4 a: O3 u! O m. y" C8 I6 P) A% x- T k+ u& F) i) S# y o+ Y9 T
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. , s) g& T- D* V4 v/ [1 V1 r. L3 i, N
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. & o! p$ V9 ?: h4 k0 R0 Y' f7 M3 Z2 m0 W% g! h4 n/ Y
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. # T5 |( d; u* Z5 R) n% q ' B* k7 g9 z" oIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ( u8 d6 o* e. X. P# M& x
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. ; h c1 l: m7 @# k$ ^
" X+ p) t1 X! j- [* F4 OThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. / ^! t- Z6 _5 l
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. . |; x+ B1 g" W0 z. O; K7 Q
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". / R t0 c( d5 u/ k b1 u' }; X" MIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. # \) l' Z0 y+ }) G* a1 J( q % q+ G8 v$ U: M! EInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 8 T! c8 O3 Z8 h2 Q
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 0 s9 z W! ^1 X. O! T! R3 O: V + k5 q3 x# O+ o9 h8 |& sGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 4 {# C2 ?' ]) F6 V0 O" G* B , g' Z% y% S$ \/ |' i5 T; i) Z+ s& bThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
